Nigerians may soon enjoy sustained relief in the cost of foreign parboiled rice as a global surplus in major rice-producing countries—particularly India—drives international prices to their lowest levels in over a decade.
India, the world’s largest rice producer, has contributed significantly to the current glut by boosting global stockpiles for the second year in a row. The oversupply has triggered a sharp decline in global prices, with ripple effects now reaching Nigeria’s markets.
Steep Drop in Local Prices
A market survey conducted by BusinessDay reveals that the price of a 50kg bag of foreign parboiled rice in Nigeria has fallen to an average of *₦67,000, down from *₦93,000** in January—a significant 28% year-to-date drop.
This trend mirrors international pricing shifts. On Monday, India’s 5% broken parboiled variety was quoted at *$500–$510 per metric ton, compared to *$530–$536** just a week prior. Similarly, the Thai 100% rice variety dropped from $413 per metric ton in March to $405 in April.
As global rice prices continue to decline, analysts expect further reductions in Nigeria, where rice remains one of the most consumed staples.
Experts: Nigeria Should Boost Domestic Production
While the decline in global prices offers short-term relief to consumers, agricultural experts warn against over-reliance on international supply.
“That global rice prices are falling also means that Nigeria will see a decline in rice prices too,” said Victor Iyama, Chairman of the Federation of Agricultural Commodity Associations of Nigeria (FACAN).
“But we must focus on increasing local production rather than depending on external markets for affordable rice.”
From Luxury to Daily Staple
The drop in prices is already changing household consumption patterns.
“I used to limit how often my children ate rice because it was too expensive,” said Sadiat Bola, a hairdresser in Lagos’ Ojodu Berger area.
“Now, we can afford to eat it as often as we want.”
During the December festive season, rice prices skyrocketed to over ₦120,000 per 50kg bag, straining household budgets and dampening celebrations. The current downturn is bringing much-needed relief to millions.
What’s Driving the Global Glut?
The global price drop began in September 2024 when India lifted several rice export restrictions, including:
- A 20% export duty on Thai broken white rice and parboiled rice.
- A price cap of $950 per ton for basmati rice to control food inflation.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), export prices for Indica rice have been steadily declining due to reduced demand, intense competition for market share, and favorable harvests in India. Currency devaluations in many exporting countries have further pressured prices downward.
Producers Under Pressure
While consumers welcome the falling prices, the outlook is more challenging for local producers and processors.
“The decline in global rice prices, combined with Nigeria’s rice importation initiatives, will likely continue driving local prices down,” said Bashir Ismail, a rice processor in Kano State.
“This benefits consumers but puts additional pressure on producers already grappling with high input costs.”
Looking Ahead to 2025
The AFEX Rice Report projects that global rice markets will remain favorable for buyers through *2025, thanks to *strong production forecasts and ongoing policy shifts in key countries like India.
“The global rice market is poised for continued price relief,” the report noted. “But local stakeholders must balance short-term benefits for consumers with long-term sustainability for Nigeria’s agricultural economy.”
As Nigeria continues to navigate between boosting domestic production and leveraging global price trends, consumers may finally get a break at the checkout counter—though farmers could be facing a tougher year ahead
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