Power generation drops 1,100MW on Nigeria’s national grid after the dispute between Dangote Refinery and PENGASSAN interrupts gas supply, causing widespread disruption and raising fears of looming blackouts. According to the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO), total available generation plunged from over 4,300 MW to as low as 3,200 MW.

The ongoing industrial action by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (PENGASSAN) in the gas supply chain has inflicted severe strain on the grid. In response, NISO has activated emergency measures including ramping up hydroelectric output, real-time load balancing, reactive power support, and selective load shedding to prevent a national collapse of system frequency and blackout.

“These disruptions triggered widespread gas shortages, reducing available generation from over 4,300 MW … to about 3,200 MW at the lowest point,” the operator stated in its public release.

How the Shortfall Unfolded

The crisis began when gas supplies to thermal power plants were choked off as part of the PENGASSAN strike. Thermal stations, which normally supply more than 70% of Nigeria’s electricity, were left underpowered. As the gas flow dwindled, generation fell sharply, forcing NISO to lean heavily on hydropower plants to inject over 400 MW as a cushion.

Additionally, NISO deployed voltage and frequency support, generation dispatch adjustments, and demand-side measures to maintain grid stability. Where demand outstripped supply, selective load shedding was implemented as a last resort.

Risks & Implications

When power generation drops 1,100MW, the repercussion is immediate:

• Widespread blackouts loom, especially in regions heavily reliant on thermal generation
• Businesses may shut, production lost, and economic activity stalled
• Households will face extended outages, with the poor hardest hit
• The pressure on hydro plants to pick up the slack increases risk of overloading and wear

Government & Sectoral Responses

While mediation efforts between the Federal Government, Dangote management, and PENGASSAN continue in Abuja, no breakthrough has yet been reached. NISO insists that, despite the crisis, steps taken have staved off a full blackout and preserved supply to critical loads.

The situation remains fluid, with stakeholders calling for a speedy resolution to protect the energy system, prevent economic collapse, and restore normalcy.