Nigeria’s World Bank debt is projected to reach $9.65 billion by the end of 2025, driven by fresh loan approvals, ongoing negotiations, and active disbursements across key sectors, including power, education, digital infrastructure, and MSME financing. Analysts warn, however, that while these concessional loans could support long-term development, they may deepen fiscal pressures if not matched with stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and prudent expenditure management.

The figure covers loans from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA), according to data on the World Bank website. Including grants, total World Bank support for Nigeria within the 2023–2025 period rises to about $9.77 billion.

World Bank Lending Breakdown (2023–2025)

The borrowing cycle under President Bola Tinubu’s administration began in 2023 with $2.7 billion in loans, focused on four major projects: power sector recovery, renewable energy access, girls’ education, and women’s economic empowerment.

Key highlights include:

• Nigeria Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up Project: $750 million IDA financing to expand private sector-led clean energy access.
• Girls’ Secondary Education: $700 million IDA credit to support education in participating states.
• Nigeria for Women Programme Scale Up: $500 million IDA to enhance women’s economic empowerment.
• AF Power Sector Recovery Operation: $449 million IBRD and $301 million IDA to improve electricity reliability and financial sustainability.

In 2024, World Bank loans surged to $4.25 billion, marking a 57.4% increase from the previous year. The growth was driven by policy-based operations and several $500 million IDA investment packages across rural roads, primary healthcare, and dam safety programs.

For 2025, the World Bank pipeline shows $2.695 billion in loans and $52.18 million in grants, spanning nine operations in financial inclusion, broadband expansion, health, education, social protection, and institutional capacity.

Major Projects Underway

Some of the largest financing facilities include:

• Broadband Expansion: $500 million IDA
• Basic Education: $500 million IDA
• Livelihood Support for Vulnerable Households: $500 million IDA
• Health Security and Nutrition: $630 million
• MSME Finance Programme: $400 million IBRD + $100 million IDA
• Central Bank Oversight Technology: $6.8 million grant

Compared with 2024, 2025 represents a 36.6% decline in the loan pipeline, though the total remains broadly in line with 2023 levels.

Nigeria’s IDA Loans Status

Nigeria has now become the largest IDA borrower in Africa and the third-largest globally, with IDA loans accounting for roughly $18.04 billion of the country’s total World Bank exposure of $19.39 billion as of June 30, 2025.

Fresh figures indicate a steady increase from $17.1 billion in September 2024 to $18.5 billion in September 2025, reflecting Nigeria’s reliance on concessional financing to bridge infrastructure gaps, stabilise reforms, and fund social programs amid fluctuating oil earnings.

Economists Weigh In on Nigeria’s Borrowing

Adewale Abimbola, Lagos-based economist, noted that World Bank loans are largely concessional, with low interest rates and long repayment tenors. He emphasized that borrowing is not inherently bad, but the critical factor is whether funds are effectively structured and utilised.

“Concessionary loans tied to viable projects with medium-term revenue prospects are beneficial,” he said. “Borrowing isn’t the problem; utilisation is.”

Dr. Aliyu Ilias, CEO of CSA Advisory, expressed caution over the rising debt profile, noting that the government has reported higher revenue inflows following fuel subsidy removal. He warned that borrowing at such a scale could reduce public service delivery, with debt servicing consuming a significant portion of available revenue.

Similarly, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, stressed that Nigeria must align borrowing with its Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and budget priorities, ensuring loans contribute directly to the economy’s capacity to repay.