That ADC May Not Be a Coalition of Chaos, By Majeed Dahiru -

That ADC May Not Be a Coalition of Chaos, By Majeed Dahiru

ADC Party Flag

Introduction: The Nigerian Political Landscape and the Search for a Third Force

Nigeria’s democracy, now over two decades old, has been dominated by two major parties—the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). While both have alternated power since 1999, they have also drawn heavy criticism for poor governance, corruption, and internal crises. Against this backdrop, calls for a viable third force have grown louder.

One of the names that consistently emerges in this conversation is the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Historically perceived as a fringe party, ADC is now positioning itself as a structured alternative capable of redefining Nigeria’s political culture. Critics, however, are skeptical, branding it as “another coalition of chaos” destined to implode under the weight of its internal contradictions. But is this narrative accurate? Or does ADC represent something different?

The Myth of the Coalition of Chaos

The phrase “coalition of chaos” is not new in Nigeria’s political discourse. It often refers to hurried alliances formed by disgruntled politicians in the heat of electioneering, motivated more by power than ideology. The APC itself was such a coalition—born in 2013 from the merger of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of PDP.

Although APC succeeded in dislodging PDP in 2015, internal wrangling soon became its Achilles’ heel, largely due to the absence of a coherent ideology. The lesson here is that coalitions without clear values and governance frameworks are vulnerable to implosion.

ADC appears to have studied this history. Its leaders insist that their current coalition-building efforts are anchored on principles rather than personalities. The party is not simply opening its doors to political refugees; it is pursuing structured partnerships with civic groups, youth movements, and professional associations. If true, this approach differentiates ADC from the chaotic alliances of the past.

ADC’s Strategic Positioning: What Makes It Different?

Institutional Strength Over Political Opportunism
ADC claims to prioritize internal democracy and accountability. Unlike most Nigerian parties where candidates emerge through godfatherism, the party has instituted mechanisms for transparent primaries and policy-driven manifestos.
A Clear Ideological Framework
In a political environment where ideology is often sacrificed for expediency, ADC brands itself as a social democratic party, promoting inclusive growth, human development, and good governance. Whether this ideology will hold under electoral pressure remains to be seen, but it signals a departure from the norm.
Targeting the Youth Demographic
With over 70% of Nigeria’s population under the age of 35, youth engagement is critical. ADC has made digital campaigning and grassroots youth mobilization a core strategy. The rise of movements like #EndSARS showed that young Nigerians are politically conscious but distrustful of traditional parties. ADC wants to fill that trust gap.
Building Strategic Alliances with Professionals and Civil Society
Instead of relying solely on career politicians, ADC is recruiting technocrats, academics, and activists. This is important because technical competence, not just political loyalty, is crucial to governance.

Historical Lessons: Why Previous Coalitions Failed

The skepticism surrounding ADC is not unfounded. Nigeria’s political history is replete with examples of failed third forces:

All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA): Once seen as a rising alternative, it became largely regional and weakened by internal splits.
Labour Party (before 2023): For years, it lacked nationwide structure until the 2023 elections.
Action Alliance and others: Many smaller parties have failed to scale beyond state-level politics.

Even APC’s success story is tainted by internal crises that nearly tore it apart after victory. The core problem has always been a lack of ideological cohesion and institutional discipline. ADC’s challenge is to avoid these pitfalls.

Why ADC Might Succeed Where Others Failed

Timing and Public Mood
Nigeria is in a deep socio-economic crisis—spiraling inflation, unemployment, insecurity, and widespread poverty. Disillusionment with APC and PDP is at an all-time high. This creates a window for an alternative platform that can articulate credible solutions.
Learning from Past Mistakes
ADC leaders publicly acknowledge that coalitions fail without internal mechanisms for conflict resolution. The party claims to have adopted strict membership guidelines and dispute resolution frameworks to manage diversity.
Institutional Partnerships
By aligning with civic movements and diaspora networks, ADC is tapping into a constituency beyond Nigeria’s traditional political elite. This could give it funding stability and grassroots legitimacy.

Challenges Ahead: Why Skepticism Persists

Despite these strengths, ADC faces significant hurdles:

Electoral Structure: Nigeria’s politics still heavily favors the big two parties because of vote-buying, incumbency advantage, and weak electoral reforms.
Media Visibility: APC and PDP dominate traditional and digital media spaces, making it hard for smaller parties to gain traction.
Risk of Defections: As elections draw near, ADC may attract career politicians seeking a platform, which could dilute its ideology and trigger internal conflicts.

Impact on 2027 Elections: Can ADC Become a Game-Changer?

If ADC sustains its current trajectory, it could:

Break the Two-Party Dominance: By consolidating disaffected voters and youth activists, ADC could emerge as a strong third force.
Force Issue-Based Campaigning: A credible alternative will compel APC and PDP to address policy debates, not just ethnic and religious sentiments.
Shape Governance Agenda: Even if it doesn’t win the presidency, a strong ADC performance in the National Assembly could influence legislative priorities.

However, if ADC becomes another dumping ground for disgruntled politicians, it risks repeating history.