Nigeria loses N8.41tn to oil theft and metering deficiencies between 2021 and July 2025, according to shocking new figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). While the regulator celebrates recent progress in cutting daily losses to their lowest level in almost 16 years, energy experts warn that the cumulative damage remains staggering—exposing deep governance failures in the country’s oil sector.

NUPRC data show that Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels of crude oil in 2021, 20.9 million barrels in 2022, 4.3 million barrels in 2023, 4.1 million barrels in 2024, and 2.04 million barrels between January and July 2025. Using Statista’s average Brent crude prices, the value of these losses translates to a massive $5.61bn, or about N8.41tn at an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar.

To put this into perspective, the stolen value of N8.41tn could have built over 56,000 primary health centres, funded 129,000 classroom blocks, or constructed 10,000 kilometres of roads—a figure that dwarfs Nigeria’s 2025 federal budget for roads, education, and healthcare combined.

Alarming Trend Despite Improvements

In 2021, crude oil theft hit an all-time high, with daily losses averaging 102,900 barrels per day. Losses declined to 11,300 bpd in 2024, and by July 2025 fell further to 9,600 bpd, the lowest since 2009. The NUPRC credits the progress to reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), military operations against oil thieves, improved metering systems, and greater involvement of host communities.

Despite the improvements, Nigeria still struggles to meet its production target of 2 million barrels per day. United States–based oil and gas consultant Chukwuma Atuanya noted that the country remains 400,000 bpd short of its December 2025 goal. “Losses of 9,600 bpd are still significant. Oil theft continues to sap foreign exchange earnings, weaken the naira, and scare away investors,” he warned.

Experts Sound the Alarm

Energy law scholar Professor Dayo Ayoade questioned the accuracy of NUPRC’s figures, arguing that weak metering and reporting systems may mask the true scale of theft. “It may well be 2.04 million barrels; it may be double that. We simply do not know,” he said.

Ayoade accused security agencies of complicity, noting that illegal refineries are often destroyed without the masterminds being arrested. “How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound,” he said.

Atuanya highlighted the environmental and social costs of theft, including pipeline vandalism, pollution, displacement of communities, and rising poverty in the Niger Delta. Both experts stressed that while zero theft may be unattainable, it can be reduced to “tolerable levels” with strict penalties, prosecution of complicit officials, transparent metering, and deeper community involvement.

A Heavy Price for Nigeria

The cumulative loss of N8.41tn is greater than the N2.48tn health budget and nearly triple the N3.52tn education budget for 2025. It represents squandered opportunities to transform Nigeria’s infrastructure, health services, and education system.

The NUPRC insists that reforms and technology are working, but experts warn that governance failures, corruption, and political interference must be addressed if Nigeria is to meet production targets and prevent future losses.

As the country aims for 2 million bpd production by the end of 2025, the fight against oil theft will be a defining test of political will, accountability, and economic recovery.